Funding for To the Contrary provided by the E.Rhodes and Leona B. Carpenter Foundation the Park Foundation and the Charles A. Frueauff Foundation.

This week on To the Contrary Surprise, no red wave.

We'll look at why Democrats have apparently done better than expected and whether the GOP is done with Donald Trump.

We'll also examine social trends affecting national politics and what's ahead for women in both parties.

(Music Open) Hello, I'm Bonnie Erbe.

Welcome to To the Contrary, a discussion of news and social trends from diverse perspectives.

Up first takeaways , from this week's historic elections.

Despite predictions to the contrary, the red wave apparently did not materialize in the 2022 midterm elections.

Still, exit polls show a very divided American electorate.

Republicans once again won a majority of white women's votes and cut into Democrats advantage among Latinas.

Democrats still received two thirds of Latina support.

An NBC exit poll found that black women support for Democrats was slightly below that of the 2018 midterms, although no black women won statewide elections for Governor or U.S.

Senator.

In what's being called the Rainbow Wave, LGBTQ-Plus voters turned out in larger numbers than ever before for a midterm election.

Massachusetts elected the first openly lesbian governor, Maura Healey.

She'll most likely be joined by Tina Kotek in Oregon.

For the first time, two male gay candidates went head to head in a House race.

The Republican won.

He's the first openly gay, LGBTQ, non incumbent Republican elected to Congress.

There are 11 current LGBTQ members of Congress, two in the Senate.

All are Democrats.

As of this taping, we do not know which party will control Congress with their number of races still too close to call.

At least 23 women senators and 101 female House members will serve in Congress.

The current record is 147.

It was a history making election for women candidates.

25 women ran for governor in 20 states.

In five states, there were women running against women as major party candidates.

There will be 11 women governors next year and not on the actual ballot was Donald Trump, who may have been the big loser in this election.

Could that mean the Republican Party will say adios to the former president?

Joining me are Congresswoman Eleanor Holmes-Norton Political scientist and author Lara Brown, commentary writer for The Washington Examiner, Tiana Lowe and Carrie Sheffield of the America First Policy Institute.

So, Eleanor, young people and people of color really turned out in this election.

Why?

This was an election like none other would ever seen.

Young people and people of color were largely responsible for the Democrats outperforming in a midterm election when given the fact that Democrats control the House, the Senate and the White House, we were set to lose much more than we did.

I think we have never seen an election like this, certainly for the Democrats.

At least historically, not for 40 years since a first term president.

In the first midterms usually loses a slew of seats in the House.

President Bush, George W Bush said that when he lost 80 plus seats in the House, that we really got a spanking or something like that.

And Obama said we got shellacked when he lost more than 60 seats in the House.

And we will lose seats in the House, but nothing like the number of seats historically lost.

Okay, Carrie Sheffield, what's going on?

Why why did this happen?

Well, I think it's several reasons.

I think it's important, though, to take a step back and look to 2020, because at that time, you actually had a very weak candidate in Joe Biden who did assume the White House, but his own party lost a substantial number of House seats.

And so it's important to look at the context of the two elections together.

And so that's part of why there is less room to grow for the Republicans, because they had already grown so much in the 2020 election in the House.

So that's an important context that I haven't really heard discussed that I think we should talk about.

But as far as the red wave, I do know some just tongue in cheek conservative commentators have said, well, the red wave is that we are waving goodbye to Nancy Pelosi's speakership.

It seems very strongly that she will no longer be the speaker.

And that is a huge success for conservatives.

2020 was a good year for Republicans in the House of Representatives, and there were not as many competitive seats for them to pick up.

With that said, I think it's fair to compare this more to 1998, which, if you remember the Democrat is only lost a few seats in the House because the country was fairly disgusted with the Republicans desire to impeach President Clinton.

And in that midterm election, what we saw was a rejection of the Republican extremism that then was about impeachment.

But I think now is precisely about President Trump, his brand of politics, and the cruelty and indecency that has come with so much of the American discourse about elections and politics.

Why was abortion so close behind the first subject of of voting interest to voters?

First was inflation, second abortion rights.

Why?

So obviously, this is the first time that abortion has been really put on the ballot at a states issue, right?

since pre Roe v Wade.

That's all Roe v that's all the elimination of Roe v Wade really did send it back to the states.

And a lot of states decided to put it on their ballots.

Pro-abortion, anti-abortion.

So it's not as though the candidates that were in favor of more abortion, restrictive in favor of more abortion restrictions, did more poorly.

Right.

You saw Brian Kemp beat Stacey Abrams by almost ten points and he signed Georgia's six week heartbeat, heartbeat, bill law.

Ron DeSantis.

But he's also he's also an anti Trump Republican, which Georgia voters were really sick of, of all the election denying, and especially in their state where it was such an issue two years ago.

Beyond it being about this broader question of democracy and are we on the cusp of fascism?

There was clearly a candidate quality issue, right?

I think that Republican voters and most importantly, those independent double hater voters, those voters that don't like the marquee Republicans and don't like the marquee Democrats, we saw they did swing with the Democrats in a lot of cases.

And it's because they I think they were sick of the drama.

They are sick of deeply weird candidates who are extremely unqualified.

Just compare the difference between Brian Kemp's performance and Herschel Walker's.

What?

How is Herschel Walker in any way qualified other than being a close buddy of President Trump?

Right.

So I don't think that abortion itself was the defining issue.

We saw that abortion mattered less when the candidate quality was strong.

Brian Kemp proved that he was able to keep Georgia's economy open while blue state governors were happy to cripple their economy, keep kids out of school for years and years.

Georgia is an exception in this way.

But where abortion rights were not at issue, where where women felt safe with whatever laws they have in their country.

Republicans who who were pro-choice, like DeSantis, for example.

DeSantis is a for a, what, a 16 week ban?

It's a 15 week ban.

Okay.

But that's why he was so resoundingly reelected and caused a Republican wave in Florida, because he's not, you know, on the extreme right on the abortion issue.

He's on the right, but not on the extreme right.

No.

And I think it's clear that that that whoever is in charge needs to meet voters where they are.

Because if you don't meet voters where they are, especially in the age of medication abortion, you will wind up with a massive black market.

That means that obviously Alabama can have a more restrictive voter, can have a restrictive abortion law than Florida, which used to be a swing state, as we've seen with Ron DeSantis, who picked up Miami-Dade by the double digits, biggest Hispanic majority county or most populous Hispanic majority county in the country.

Even you're seeing Glenn Youngkin replicate this abortion model where Glenn Youngkin has been saying he wants to take Virginia, a deeply purple state, and also pass 15 weeks.

That is different than Herschel Walker, a man who is accused of paying for multiple of his mistress's abortions, saying things like, I believe in banning all abortion, including without exception for rape and incest.

My favorite of Herschel Walker's very strange quotes was that women are affected more by inflation because they do all the grocery shopping.

I'm sure that landed with a real thud for women in Georgia.

I just want to respond because Herschel Walker had a mental illness and he's spoken very openly about his borderline personality disorder.

A lot of the behavior that was was identified happened before his treatment.

I think it's very uncompassionate to bash someone who had untreated mental illness.

Carrie, one of the alleged abortions, which, again, we're saying alleged.

We're not saying proven one of the alleged abortions that he paid for.

The woman alleging, is saying that it happened in 2012, well after he came out by being a survivor of a mental illness.

And I think the issue is that if you and I, as you and I are both very pro-life, believe that there aren't all good excuses for abortions and much less Herschel Walker saying that rape and incest are not valid excuses.

Then yeah, that seems like pretty clearly disqualifying behavior in the same way that Roy Moore's behavior was clearly disqualifying.

So talking about abortion, how did it affect women in states?

Did it drive them to the polls in states where there was somebody like DeSantis, who would not sign a law with banning abortion after six weeks but did one for 15 weeks?

How did that affect women going to the polls and women of color?

Oh, I think abortion drove women to the polls.

They it was a issue, a top of the scale issue for women.

And we saw that in the turnout and in the effect on the contest with with the close and with even Republicans understanding the importance of the abortion vote One of the things that did happen when the Supreme Court remanded the decision of Roe versus Wade back to the states is what we saw on this midterm election, was that Democrats picked up governors seats.

They also maintained gubernatorial seats.

And you can look at the state of Michigan and see the widespread victories among Democrats as being a part of the ballot initiative that was there to ensure that abortion would not be banned in Michigan.

Yeah, and we should point out as well that Michigan was one of three states that passed amendments to their constitutions, California and Vermont as well, protecting the right to an abortion.

All right.

From the election.

Yeah, Kim.

Right.

So moving on, though, from abortion, I think it's also important to say this.

I have long believed that the greatest privilege that white men have had is that they have been able to be seen as individuals for hundreds of years.

The truth is, everyone else who is a part of a group, whether you are a woman or a person of color, has always been seen in that fashion as part of a group.

And I think what is so fascinating about where we are moving in our politics is we are now clearly seeing that there are differences between individuals within groups, whether those individuals happen to be LGBTQ, whether they happen to be women, whether they happen to be people of color.

It's also a statement confirming that.

And we've been saying on this show for decades, literally, you know, that women don't vote as a bloc.

In the seventies, it was thought of that.

They did.

They all supported abortion rights in the eighties.

that started to narrow and to the point where now everybody knows there are plenty of anti-abortion women who vote for no abortion rights, no protection under state or federal constitutions.

So but finish your thought about about the individualization.

Also.

Of course, Latinas don't vote as a bloc.

African-Americans are the closest in vote as a bloc, but they still don't vote.

Republicans got 22% of young African-American voters this time around .

-Mystifies me.

I think that just indicates dissatisfaction with the economy.

And I think also student loans.

The fact that you had the Biden White House trying to pander to rich, white, largely, you're more likely to be white if you're college educated.

I think it was class warfare, what Joe Biden did by trying to pander and give out billions of dollars of taxpayer money to people who are, you know, two income couple making $300,000 could get loan forgiveness.

I mean, that that to me is an abomination.

All right.

From election results to the mood of the electorate, How did the pollsters get it so wrong ... again?

Reproductive rights played a much bigger role in turnout and was the second most important factor, according to exit polls.

Before the election, pollsters were saying women were no longer energized by reproductive rights and Democrats had the wrong message.

It turned out inflation was the number one issue.

But reproductive rights was a close second.

And where reproductive rights were actually a question on the ballot, the right to choice won out.

California, Michigan and Vermont voters amended their constitutions to include reproductive rights In fire engine red Kentucky votes rejected an amendment that would have ended any state right to abortion.

Montana's referendum to criminalize healthcare providers for failing to keep newborns without a chance of surviving alive as long as possible.

Seems headed for defeat.

On the right The GOP's red wave never materialized, and there are more questions about the impact on the party or possibility of a presidential run by Donald Trump.

So, Tiana, are we going to see Donald Trump running in 24?

I think, as always, Trump has not been motivated by wanting to, you know, be an executive for another four years.

I think that it's been motivated by two things.

One, this is someone with, you know, an incredibly enfeebled ego.

I think he wants to reclaim being a victor.

Second, I do think that, you know, this miasma of civil investigation into him in New York, I don't think that's helped.

This is why I think that, you know, the New York case against Donald Trump and his business has been extremely unproductive.

Its the fastest way to get him to have a perverse incentive to run again.

But definitely, look, not only was the performance of the Republicans historically anomalous because in the past century, in the 25 midterm elections that have been held, the party in power has gained seats in the House three times and gain seats in the Senate seven times.

So it is very anomalous how poorly the Republicans did.

But it's even worse because Florida and New York were such bright spots.

Think about it.

DeSantis is now the king of Florida, and Ron DeSantis do not just do so well in general, but, you know, get the majority of the Hispanic vote.

Proved that you can do so by by leaning into the culture wars, as well as being an effective governor.

While the Trumpian theatrics focusing on the 2020 election was not productive.

And why?

Because the Biden economy is not good.

We have 7.7% inflation.

That's still getting worse.

We have the highest mortgage rate.

Wait a minute.

It's going down.

No, no.

It came out this week, 7.7.

That was down from 8.3 and close to nine.

The economy is getting better.

The stock market leapt up a thousand points or so, at least at one point.

Truth is that inflation is up since Joe Biden took office.

So talking about since January 21, most of us in six compared to just a year ago.

If you look at the full length of his term, it's up by more than 13%.

That is catastrophic.

And unemployment went up in October.

It went up by 0.2 percentage points.

So that's going in there.

We're still a very strong job market.

And of course, if you're if you're going to keep he kept Powell, Powell as head of the Federal Reserve.

That was Donald Trump's choice.

Of course, if you're going know, if you're going to, you know, raise interest rates, the whole point is to slow down the economy.

This is not.

You can't legitimately call this a Biden fault.

I think it was because of the spending.

And I think that's part of why the stock market revived is because they want a divided government.

They want a conservative House to stop and block the Biden agenda.

Part of the reason why New York flipped is because so many of those incumbent House members had to defend themselves in districts that were relatively new.

And it was because former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democrats in the state of New York, I think, were full of hubris and attempted to pass a very gerrymandered map.

Let's get back to Illinois.

The mood of the country.

Do you believe that abortion rights will still be on women's minds in 2024?

Well, abortion is one of the major reasons Democrats did so well.

And indeed, I think what we're seeing here are independents splitting their vote.

What has been produced is what was not predicted.

And what was not predicted was that Democrats would do so well in a in a midterm election, and they did not anomalously so.

getting their votes.

Is the mood of the country headed toward more vote splitting?

There's a bipartisan mood.

There is a mood of, you know, a clear divide.

And I think the only way we're going to move forward is to try to find ways we can agree.

So, for example, on the abortion issue, I'm a pro-life woman, but I believe that my pro-choice sisters, we could come together on the issue of prevention.

Let's try to prevent rather than terminate.

And that way we can reduce the number of abortions that are, you know, prevention is is going to be safer than termination.

So I think that really putting that focus in for the Democrats, going back to what what Bill Clinton, the party of Bill Clinton, his mantra was safe, legal and rare.

Yeah, but conservatives in several states have passed are trying to pass a ban on using, you know, R-U-486 or plan B.

All pro-lifers are in favor of Plan B except for actual morons.

No, pro-lifers are in favor of the actual abortion pill.

There are two very different issues and there is a reason why you see Republicans nationally, Republicans in Congress trying to pass bills to make contraception over the counter so those 1 million uninsured women can still get them on top of the women who were already promised employer funded contraception under the Affordable Care Act.

And as you're seeing, that has worked.

Deregulating contraception at the state level has worked.

Oregon has done it.

You've seen it.

Individual state legislatures doing it, making it so both in the same way that plan B is over the counter, making it so that way.

Regular contraception is over the counter.

Joni Ernst has reintroduced this bill with with House members for a House bill.

When will Democrats take them up on the table?

That is a that is a very strong area of bipartisanship, as Carrie was talking about, that would vastly contribute to reducing that unintended pregnancy rate to make it so my abortion isn't even wanted or desirable.

All right.

And I want to ask Donald Trump as a force in the upcoming presidential election whether he runs or not.

Does he still have you said, Tiana, before he is he still a kingmaker?

Kingmaker, not king.

Although, you know what?

This was his chance, Bonnie, and he blew it.

I vote no.

I vote.

You're fired.

I vote.

Let's go.

For the people who won by the double digits.

Donald Trump is going to be pushing 80 soon.

I am so done with these almost 80 year olds being the president.

That's not ageism?

You have to be at least 25 to be in the house.

We have ageism going south.

Why wouldn't we have it going north?

Okay, interesting.

And your thoughts, Lara, on this one.

Well, look, I think one of the most extraordinary achievements of Donald Trump has been to convince Republicans that he is a winner.

If you actually look back to 2016, I deeply believe that had Republicans nominated anyone other than Trump, they would have won the popular vote in addition to the Electoral College.

He also had massive losses in 2018 and he was the first one party term president since Jimmy Carter to lose his reelection.

It is stunning to me that Republicans at any level consider himself a winner.

And I do think that we're going to see more and more Republicans move away from him as his losses in 22 were finally so self-evident that I do think Republicans are going to look for a different future.

Do you agree, Carrie?

Donald Trump's policies were winners for the American people.

They were winners for life.

We have a majority who recognize under the Constitution that there was no constitutional right to abort a child.

Thanks to President Trump and his courage, you had historic achievements in the Middle East of peace.

The fact that you have flight patterns between the Arab countries and Israel, that would never happen under any other president.

It was in the nineties.

Congress.

That's also that.

No, no, no.

You can't.

He may have been backing up Netanyahu, but you can't give Trump that now.

I I'll respectfully disagree.

I think that there are many women and just voters in general who say that the policies of the Trump administration, the America First policies, are a winner.

You saw record income for women, record employment, record wealth gains all pre-pandemic at levels never seen until it came to the Trump administration.

So I warmly disagree, but we'll see what happens.

Eleanor, your thoughts?

Well, Trump has virtually declared it.

There's no doubt in my mind that he's going to run, and I certainly hope he does.

I think Democrats can beat him.

If he runs again, he he will be, first of all, still fighting litigation left and right.

It may be in jail.

I mean, he could.

Even be even by that time in jail.

And even his.

Even Republicans recognize that the chances of their losing are greater.

If Trump runs again, he already has people challenging him.

All he needs to do is set aside.

And then Democrats will have a fight on their hands because they have a more even playing field.

All right.

Thank you so much.

That's it for this edition.

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Funding for To the Contrary provided by the E. Rhodes and Leona B Carpenter Foundation.

The Park Foundation and the Charles A .

Frueauff Foundation.