"DIRECT CONNECTION" IS MADE BY MPT TO SERVE ALL OF OUR DIVERSE COMMUNITIES AND IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE GENEROUS SUPPORT OF OUR MEMBERS.

THANK YOU.

LIVE FROM MARYLAND PUBLIC TELEVISION, THIS IS "DIRECT CONNECTION" WITH JEFF SALKIN.

>> Jeff: GOOD EVENING.

WELCOME TO "DIRECT CONNECTION."

WE BEGIN TONIGHT WITH FIGHTING INFLATION.

THE VALUE OF EVERY DOLLAR IN YOUR POCKET IS DOWN BY ABOUT 13 CENTS SINCE THE START OF THE PANDEMIC.

IS THE FED ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN RAISING INTEREST RATES?

JOINING US TONIGHT TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS, ECONOMIST BRAIN-EATING ANIRBAN BASU, CHAIRMAN OF SAGE POLICY GROUP.

ANIRBAN, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.

WE HAVE NOT SEEN INFLATION NUMBERS LIKE THIS IN THE UNITED STATES FOR THREE OUR FOUR DECADES, RIGHT?

>> Anirban Basu: 40 YEARS.

THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT WHEN VOELKER WAS THE CHAIRMAN IN THE LATE 1970S AND EARLY 1980S, TELL UNTIL 1987, BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN INFLATION LIKE THIS FOR FOUR DECADES, SO A LOT OF VIEWERS WOULD NEVER HAVE EXPERIENCED ANYTHING LIKE IN OUR LIVES.

>> Jeff: WHY IS IT HAPPENING?

SOME ECONOMISTS POINT TO THE MONEY SUPPLY, THAT THE FED, THEY SAY, PRINTED TOO MUCH MONEY, THEORETICALLY TO DEAL WITH THE PANDEMIC, AND THE SUDDEN HALT OF THE ECONOMY.

OTHER PEOPLE POINT TO SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES, MAYBE OVERSPENDING BY THE GOVERNMENT, AND WAR IN EUROPE.

WHAT DO YOU SEE?

>> Anirban Basu: ALL OF THOSE FACTORS HAVE IMPACTED INFLATION.

OFF THEM HAVE PUSHED INFLATION HIGHER.

SO IT'S TRUE.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE VASTLY INCREASED MONEY SUPPLY DURING THE PANDEMIC PERIOD.

THAT'S ONE.

SECOND, WE HAD SEVERAL MAJOR STIMULUS PACKAGES, SOME OF THEM ROUGHLY IN THE RANGE OF $2 TRILLION PER PACKAGE.

THREE, WE HAVE HAD GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS, WHETHER IT RELATES TO SOFT WOOD LUMBER PRODUCTION OR STEEL OR OIL OR WHATEVER IT HAPPENS TO BE, APPLIANCES, AUTOMOBILES, AND THAT HAS ALSO DRIVEN UP PRICES BECAUSE THAT CREATES SCARCITY WHEN THE SUPPLY AND THE ECONOMY CAN'T FUNCTION P THE V-SHAPED NATURE OF THE RECOVERY, HOW RAPID THE ECONOMY HAS RECOVERED FROM THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE PANDEMIC.

ALL IN HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INFLATION.

AND SO HERE WE ARE AND NOW IT'S BUILT INTO PEOPLE'S EXPECTATIONS.

>> Jeff: LET'S BREAK IT DOWN TO INDIVIDUAL POCKETBOOK ISSUES.

IF SOMEBODY WATCHING IS A RECIPIENT OF SOCIAL SECURITY, THEY'RE GOING TO SEW A MUCH LARGE -- SEE A MUCH LARGER NUMBER OF IN THEIR CHECK STARTING NEXT YEAR, UP 8 OR 9 PERCENT.

AND THAT SEEMS LIKE GOOD NEWS.

IS IT?

>> Anirban Basu: ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL, JEFF, IT IS GOOD NEWS.

8.7%, MORE MONEY TO SPEND, AND IF PEOPLE ARE ON FIXED INCOMES BE WITH WHICH, OF COURSE, MANY RETIREES ARE, THAT'S GOOD NEWS, BUT IF AMERICA HAS AN INFLATION PROBLEM, WHICH IT DOES, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS RESPONDING BY RAPIDLY RAISING INTEREST RATES, WHICH IT IS, WHICH IS ALREADY CAUSED THE HOUSING MARKET SOME BIT OF GRIEF, BUT THAT GRIEF IS SPREADING ACROSS THE ECONOMY, THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU HAVE TOOT ANOTHER FACTOR DRIVING SPENDING AND THEREFORE INFLATION HIGHER.

SO IN SOME SENSE THIS WILL MAKE THE INFLATION PROBLEM THAT MUCH MORE INTRACTABLE.

>> Jeff: AND THAT'S HOW THE WHOLE THING SNOWBALLS, CORRECT?

BECAUSE YOU'VE SEEN YOUR EXPENSES GO UP.

IF YOU'RE WORKING, YOU'RE GOING TO ASK FOR A RAISE.

IF YOU'RE A COMPANY AND YOU'RE SEEING YOU ARE WHY INPUT COSTS GOING UP, YOU'RE GOING TO TRY TO PASS THAT ALONG TO YOUR END USERS, AND THEN IT CAN KIND OF BECOME INGRAINED, RIGHT, EMBEDDED.

>> Delegate Barnes: THAT'S EXACTLY BANCH SO IF YOU ARE A RESTAURANT OWNER, FOR INSTANCE, TRYING TO DETERMINE NEXT YEAR'S MENU PRICES AND YOU SEE FOOD PRICES RISE 11% OVER THE LAST YOU'RE GOING TO BUILD THAT INTO NEXT YEAR'S FOOD PRICES.

IF YOU'RE A LABOR INDIVIDUAL OR SIMPLY AN INDIVIDUAL ESTIMATING YOUR WAGES FOR THE NEXT YEAR, YOU'LL SAY, LOOK, THE AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS HAVE GONE UP 5% OVER THE PAST YEAR.

NORMALLY THAT WOULD BE PRETTY GOOD BUT INFLATION HAS BEEN 8.2% AT THE CONSUMER LEEFL OVER THE PAST YEAR.

SO PEOPLE WILL SAY I'M FALLING BEHIND.

I NEED EVEN MORE MONEY.

AND ALL OF THESE THINGS, THESE P ANDTATIONS WILL HELP FUEL NEXT YEAR'S INFLATION.

THE FED RESERVE TRIES TO -- WE CAN SEE SOME ABATEMENT OF THESE INFLATIONARY PRICES.

>> Jeff: LET ME REMIND OUR VIEWERS IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION FOR ANIRBAN SEND US A QUESTION ON THE SCREEN OR SEND US AN EMAIL TO LIVEQUESTIONS@MPT.ORG.

ANIRBAN, IS THAT WHAT YOU MEAN WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE INFLATIONARY PROBLEM BROADENING OUT?

>> Anirban Basu: YES, I.

HERE'S A SITUATION I I THINK, FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, JEFF.

WHEN THIS BOUT OF INFLATION BEGAN TO MANIFEST ITSELF DURING THE TWINGE OF 2021, A LOT OF THIS WAS DUE TO SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS.

A LOT OF IT WAS BECAUSE PEOPLE COULD NOT FIND PRODUCTS TO BUY, STEEL TOOK OFF AND OTHER ON INSPECT OF GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN.

HAD CLOSED DOWN.

THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN WE HAD VACCINATIONS.

WE HAD THE GLOBAL ECONOMY REOPENING, AND THE SUPPLY SIDE COULDN'T HANDLE ALL THAT BURSTING DEMAND.

BUT NOW WHAT YOU SEE IS IN FACT IN MANY CASES THE SUPPLY CHAIN IS IMPROVING.

IT DOESN'T FEEL LIKE IT I SUPPOSE IN MANY CASES, BUT ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE DATA THE WORST OF SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES OCCURRED AROUND DECEMBER OF LAST YEAR.

TO TODAY A PRINCIPLE DRIVER OF INFLATION IS RYANS EXPWAIRNLINGS SO WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS THAT EVERY SEGMENT OF THE ECONOMY EMPLOYS PEOPLE.

AND PEOPLE ARE BECOMING MORE EXPENSIVE.

SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT LAST MONTH'S DATA, FOR INSTANCE, ON CONSUMER PRICES WE SAW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INFLATION IN HEALTH CARE, IN RESTAURANTS, IN HOTELS, IN AUTO REPAIR BECAUSE THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH NURSES AND CLERKS AND MECHANICS AND OTHER PEOPLE IN OTHER OCCUPATION CAT GOARTS WITH JUST NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE, SO WAGES ARE RISING RAPIDLY AND THAT OF COURSE FUELS INFLATION AND SO THAT INFLATION IS BROADENING RIGHT NOW.

IT'S ACTUALLY NOT GETTING BETTER IN MANY WASTES.

>> Jeff: PHONE CALL FROM BALTIMORE COUNTY.

THIS IS STUART.

STUART, THANK YOU FOR THE CALL.

GO AHEAD.

>> Speaker: HI.

GOOD EVENING.

THANKS.

THE QUESTION IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WHEN PAUL VOELKER RAISED INTEREST RATES AND NOW WE HAVE $31 TRILLION OF DEPARTMENT.

TO FIGHT INFLATION AT THIS POINT WE HAVE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES BEYOND 8%.

WITH $31 TRILLION OF DEBT, HOW CAN THE FEDERAL RESERVE REALLY COMBAT INFLATION AT THIS POINT?

THAT'S MY QUESTION.

>> Jeff: THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

THE.

IF YOU THINK ABOUT THIS THAT ANIRBAN, IN TERMS OF SOCIAL SECURITY THEY HAVE A TRUST FUND WHICH IS FULL OF FRESH RIS WHICH HAVE REALLY BEEN DEVALUED.

>> Anirban Basu: YEAH, RIGHT YOU.

EXACTLY RIGHT.

SO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS BOND VALUES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR AND AS IT TURNS OUT WHEN BOND VALUES FALL, IT'S THE CASE OF INTEREST RATES ARE RISING, SO INTEREST RATES ARE TAKING OFF.

TEN-YEAR TREASURY, OBVIOUSLY MORTGAGES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR JANUARY, AVERAGE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE WAS 322%.

IT'S NOW SCREAMING TOWARD 7%.

SO, YES, WE HAVE SEEN MASSIVE INCREASES.

SO WHAT THE FEDERAL REVELER HAS TO DO AT THIS POINT -- WE REEL SHOULDN'T BE IN AT THIS POINT.

I THINK THEY MESS UPPED, THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE OVERSTIMULATED IN 2021, THAT THEY FAILED TO SPY THIS PROBLEM AS MORE THAN SIMPLY TRANSITORY IN 2021, AND SO WE ARE NOW IN THIS INFLATIONARY EPISODE AND NOW THEY HAVE TO UNDO MUCH OF WHAT THEY HAVE DONE, AND THEY DO THAT BY RAISING INTEREST RATES.

AND WHAT THEY REALLY NEED TO DO MACROECONOMICALLY IS DESTROYED THE MOMENTUM OF THE YOU YOU ARE U.S. LABOR MARKET WHICH IS A HORRIBLE THING TO SAY.

I DON'T WANT TO SAY THIS, BUT UNDER THE EMPLOYMENT RATE IS 3.5% NATIONALLY.

IT'S 2.1% IN THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA.

IT'S ABOUT 4.3% IN MARYLAND.

WHAT IT MEANS IS THAT UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW EVERYWHERE AND THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY RISING RAISES AND SO WITH INFLATION YOU HAVE TO HAVE WAGES RISE LESS RAPIDLY AND THAT MEANS MEYER UNEMPLOYMENT, SLOWER ECONOMY.

>> Jeff: TAKING THE PROVERBIAL PUNCH BOWLLY WA JUST AS THE PARTY GETS STARTED.

THAT'S IN THE MISSION STATEMENT OF THE FED.

AND TO THE CALLER'S POINT ABOUT FINANCING THE FEDERAL DEBT, THIS IS GOING TO REQUIRE PRINTING MORE MONEY OR MORE DEFICIT SPENDING, WON'T IT?

BARCHLTS OH, I THINK SO.

WE HAVE A PROBLEM HERE.

A NATIONAL DEBT THAT IS ABOUT $30 TRILLION.

THERE IS, OF COURSE, A SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND.

LAST I CHECKED IT WAS INVOL SENT IN ROUGHLY 2033 OR 2034.

BUT BEFORE THAT THE MEDICARE TRUST FUND IS SET TO BE INVOL SENT IN 2026 COORDINATING TO A RECENT FROM US TEE'S REPORT.

SO PUTTING THAT ALL TOGETHER WE HAVE A NATIONAL DEBT PROBLEM.

ONE OF THE OTHER THINGS THAT'S HAPPENING IS THE WORKFORCE NOT GROWING RELATIVE FOR THE URM TURNL H. NUMBER OF RETIREES SO THESE PROBLEMS GLET WORSE.

RIENT THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS FOCUSED ON ONE THING BASICALLY, INFLATION, AND THEN THEY WILL WORRY ABOUT THE DEBT CONSIDERATIONS LATER BUT THAT IS HELD BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, THE MO THE FEDERAL REVELER.

NEVERTHELESS WE OCHT AS ONE COUNTRY, AND IF THE FRA GOVERNMENT'S INTEREST RATES GO UP, THAT OBVIOUSLY IMPACT TAXPAYERS AND OTHERS PARTS OF THE ECONOMY.

>> Jeff: EMAIL QUESTION.

A VIEWER WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE BUZZ WORD OF THIS DECADE ANYWAY, TRANSITORY.

WHY DID THE FED, THE TREASURY SECRETARY BELIEVE THAT INFLATION WAS TRANSITORY?

IT'S NOT A GOOD LOOK IN HINDSIGHT.

>> Anirban Basu: NO, IT'S NO, JEFF, BUT I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY THEY THOUGHT IT.

THEY THOUGHT IT WAS TRANSITORY, AND AGAIN IT STARTS IN AROUND APRIL OF 2021 IS WHEN INFLATION BEGINS TO REAR ITS UGLY HEAD OR AT LEAST EXCESS INFLATION.

IT'S BECAUSE WE'RE THE IN MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.

WE SHUT MUCH OF THE ECONOMY NOT JUST IN AMERICA BUT AROUND THE WORLD.

AND NOW WE REOPENED THE ECONOMY, AND THE SUPPLY SIDE OF THE ECONOMY HAS TO CATCH UP WITH ALL THAT DEMAND.

AND SO THE NOTION WAS AT SOME POINT THE SUPPLY CHAIN WOULD START WORKING AGAIN AND INFLATION WOULD GO AWAY ON THE OWN.

ACTUALLY THE NOTION BACK THEN WAS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE THAN THE WE HAVE TO CUT INTEREST RATES.

INFLATION WOULD DISAPPEAR BY ITSELF.

THEY WERE DEAD WRONG.

PEOPLES EXPECTATIONS BY NOVEMBER OR DECEMBER, THEY RILED THEY HAD A PROBLEM ON THEIR HAND.

THEY STARTED RAISING INTEREST RATES IN MARCH AND VERY MUCH.

IN THE MIDST OF THEIR RATE HIKING CYCLE.

>> Jeff: LET'S BE UPBEAT HERE FOR A SECOND UP.

I THINK INFLATION HAS PEAKED.

>> Anirban Basu: I THINK IT PROBABLY HAS PEAKED.

THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.

I MEAN, YOU LOOK AT GASOLINE PRICES AND SOME OTHER PRICES AND THE ECONOMY SOFT WITH LUMBER PRICES ARE NOWHERE NEAR THE PANDEMIC ERA PEAK.

STEEL PRICES AND COPPER RISES PLIESES HAVE BEEN FALLING, AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS WEAKENING.

AS THE WORLD BANK AND IF IS OUT, THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS A RECESSION IN 23, AND ECONOMIES ARE NOT GROWING, THAT MEANS LESS DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICES AND THAT'S DISINFLATION PURI.

I THINK INFLATION VERY WELL MAY HAVE PEAKED.

WE HAVE THE WAR IN UKRAINE.

WE HAVE CHINA'S ECONOMIC LOCKDOWNS.

CHINA HAS A QUARTER OF THE MANUFACTURING.

WE HAVE EUROPEAN CRISES FACING US.

THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF ISSUES IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN, BUT IT'S QUITE LIKELY INFLATION HAS PEAKED.

THAT DOESN'T NOT MEAN PRICES ARE NOT RISING VERY QUICKLY, HOWEVER.

>> HOW ABOUT THE IDEA THAT WE COULD HAVE A SOFT LANDING?

IS THERE WAS A HEADLINE THE ON BLOOMBERG SERVICE TODAY THAT 100 PERCENT C THEIR RECESSION MODEL, THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A RECESSION NEXT YEAR.

BUT PEOPLE STILL HOLD OUT HOPE.

MAYBE IT'S A MILE ONE AND THE RECESSION ITSELF MIGHT BE TRANSITORY.

>> Anirban Basu: YES, THERE'S THAT WORD AGAIN.

SO SOFT LANDING.

SO THE NOTION IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE RAISES BORROWING COSTS, SLOWS ECONOMIC GROWTH, WEEDS EXCESS INFLATION OUT OF THE ECONOMY WITHOUT DRIVING US INTO A DEEP RECESSION.

JEFF, I REALLY BELIEVE AND, OF COURSE, YOU'LL FIND MANY ECONOMISTS WHO WILL DISAGREE WITH ME, THAT NEXT YEAR'S RECESSION, AND THERE WILL BE ONE, WILL BE QUITE DEEP.

AS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE THEY ARE GOING TO KEEP RAISING THESE BORING COSTS.

WE HAVE A HEAVILY LEVERAGED SOCIETY.

WE HAVE SEEN WHAT THE HOME MARKET.

HOWNS PRICES ARE FALLING IN MANY COMMUNITIES.

TODAY WAS A VERY GOOD DAY ON WALL STREET BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING STOCK PRICES AND BOND VALUES HAVE BEEN FALLING.

A LOT OF LOSS IN WEALTH PORTFOLIOS.

THERE IS LEADING INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT NEXT YEAR'S RECESSION WILL BE NOT A SOFT LANDING BUT MUCH HARDER.

>> LET'S TALK TO GENE IN WICOMICO COUNTY.

GO AHEAD.

>> Speaker: HI.

I'M WONDERING WI HAVEN'T HEARD ANYBODY MENTION THE PRICE OF THE COST OF LIVINGS COUNCIL THAT THEY USED IN THE '70s WHERE THEY HAD THE PRICE FREEZE ON, AND IF YOU DID HAVE AN EXCEPTION YOU HAD -- OR IF YOU HAD A HARDSHIP, YOU COULD FILE FOR A EXCEPTION THROUGH THE COST OF LIVINGS COUNCIL.

BUT I'M WONDERING DID THOSE PRICE FREEZES HELP IN THE '70s AND WHY IS IT NOT MENTIONED TODAY?

I HAVEN'T EVEN HEARD ANYONE TALK ABOUT WHAT THEY DMT 70S.

>> Jeff: GENE, THAT'S A GRET AQUA QUESTION.

IT'S BECAUSE VERY FEW OF US ARE OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER JERRY FORD'S WHIP INFLATION NOW YOU BUTTONS, CORRECT?

SPRCHLTS YES, SIR.

>> Anirban Basu: THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.

REMEMBER GERALD FORD AND, YOU KNOW, I SORT OF A BIG VAGUELY REMEMBER THOSE PRICE FREEZES.

DIDN'T REALLY WORK BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS IS IT'S A GLOBAL ECONOMY.

SO WHILE THE PRICE FREEZE ATTACHED TO OUR DOMESTIC PRODUCERS IN SOME CASES, TRR SO MANY GOODS AND SERVICES IN THE ECONOMY THAT THEY HAVE TO BE REALLY BROAD PRICE FREEZE TOWS REALLY SOLVE INFLATION.

AND THE OTHER THING IS THAT WHEN THERE ARE PRICE FREEZES, MEANING THAT MANUFACTURERS OR OTHERS CAN ONLY CHARGE SOAP, THEY RESTRICT PRODUCTION AND HAVE LESS INCENTIVE TO PRODUCE WHICH, OF COURSE, CEASE OTHER ISSUES IN THE ECONOMY.

NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT PRICE FREEZES AT LEAST I DON'T THINK YOU WILL SEE THEM.

WE'RE GOING TO TRY TO CURTAIL INFLATION THE PAUL VOELKER WAY.

PAUL VOELKER WAS MAYBE ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL FEDERAL -- GETS A LOT OF CREDIT FOR THE FINANCIAL BOON IN '80s AND BE '90.

THEY'RE GOING TO FOLLOW AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE HIS PATH, AND NAS RAISE RAISING INLET RATES VERY, VERY HIGH AND THAT'S GOING TO DRIVE NEWS A DEEP RECESSION.

>> Jim: PROMISE TO GET OUT OF THE ECONOMICS TEXTBOOK AFTER THIS QUESTION FROM A VIEWER WHICH GOES RIGHT TOTE VOELKER FORMULA WHICH WOULD SEEM THIS GENTLEMAN WRITE, TO REQUIRE INTEREST RATES AROUND 18 OR 20 PERCENT.

TO CONTROL INFLATION.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

>> Anirban Basu: NO, I DON'T THINK WE NEED TO GO THAT HIGH.

I THINK, IN FACT, THAT FED FUNDS RATE, THE OVERNIGHT BANK LENDING RATE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE DIRECTLY ESTABLISHES, THAT YOU'LL E SEE A PEAK FOR THE CYCLE AT AROUND 5%.

NOW, WE'RE AROUND 3/4% SO THAT MEANS MORE RATE HIKES DECEMBER, BEAUTY YO THINK YOU WILL I DO NOT SEE 18 TO 20% MORTGAGE RATES OR INTEREST RATES.

SOME PEOPLE IN YOUR AUDIENCE, YOUR FIRST MORTGAGE WAS AROUND THAT LEVEL.

I DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE THAT.

>> Jeff: YOU KNOW THE MARYLAND ECONOMY REALLY WELL.

PEOPLE ARE THINKING ABOUT CHANGING CAREERS, GETTING A DIFFERENT JOB, STAYING AT THE CURRENT JOB, PURSUING A DEGREE OR A CERTIFICATION FOR SOMETHING NEW.

WHAT WOULD YOU ADVISE AT THIS POINT?

WHERE ARE THE NEXT JOB AS GOING TO COME FROM?

>> Anirban Basu: YOU KNOW, JEFF, RIGHT NOW JOBS ARE EVERYWHERE.

ACCORDING TO FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DATA, THERE WERE IN AUGUST ABOUT 10.1 MILLION AVAILABLE UNFILLED JOBS IN THIS COUNTRY.

THERE ARE ABOUT ONE AND THREE-QUARTERS JOB FOR EVERY UNEMPLOYED AMERICA.

IF YOU WANT TON A WELDER, MECHANIC, FRUK DRIVER, PHYSICIAN, PHYSICIAN'S ASSISTANT, THERE'S SOMEBODY WILLING TO HIRE YOU, AND THEY MIGHT PAY YOU MUCH MORE THAN YOU WOULD HAVE RECEIVED PRE-PANDEMIC, BEFORE THE SURGE IN WAGES THAT WE HAVE SEEN.

THAT'S TRUE FOR HOTEL MAIDS.

THAT'S TRUE FOR ALL KINDS OF CATEGORIES.

SO THIS HAS BEEN A GREAT TIME FOR WORKS OUT IN THEIR ROLE AS WORKERS.

IT'S NOT A GOOD TIME FOR CONSUMERS BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN PAYING HIGHER PRICES BUT IT'SCH.

THAT SAID YOU'VE AHEAD, OF THE GREAT RESIGNATION.

PEOPLE ARE QUITTING THEIR JOBS TO GET A BETTER ONE.

LY YO THINK THE LABOR MARKETT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG IN 2023 OR 20TH 24.

THIS MAYBE A TIME WHEN IF YOU LIKE YOUR JOB, MAKE SURE YOU KEEP IT BECAUSE I SUSPECT MANY PEOPLE WILL BE LOOSING THEIR JOBS OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 MONTHS.

I HOPE I'M WRONG WRONG BUT A MEMBER OF THE DISMAL SCIENCE.

WE BRING BAD NEWS, JEFF.

ECONOMISTS HAVE NO FRIENDS.

>> Jeff: ALWAYS SO GREAT TO TALK WITH DR. ANIRBAN BASU OF SAGE MOILS POLICY GROUP.

WE APPRECIATE THE TIME.

THANK YOU SO MUCH.

AND NOW A NEW STATE PROGRAM IS PAYING BONUSES TO HELP FILL CONSTRUCTION JOBS.

WE TALKED TODAY WITH STATE LABOR SECRETARY TIFFANY ROBINSON.

SO TO BEGIN, MADAME SECRETARY, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

TELL US ABOUT THIS PROGRAM AND ITS OBJECTIVES.

>> Tiffany Robinson: SURE.

THANK YOU, JEFF, FOR HAVING ME.

THIS IS REALLY A FIRST IN THE NATION INNOVATIVE PROGRAM CALLED JOBS THAT BUILD.

IT'S AN EMPLOYER FUND THAT IS FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE EMPLOYEE.

WE HAVE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN OUR PIPELINE IN THE STATE, AND AS YOU PROBABLY HAVE HEARD, CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME RECRUITING AND RETAINING THE WORKFORCE TO COMPLETE THESE JOBS.

SO WE DECIDED TO DO SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT AND THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX IN THE WAY THAT WE FUND OUR WORKFORCE PROGRAMS.

AND WE'RE OFFERING GRANTS TO EMPLOYERS, ANY EMPLOYER THAT'S INVOLVED IN THE CONSTRUCTION OR MAINTENANCE OF AN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT OR HAS A CONTRACT TO BEGIN ONE CAN APPLY FOR ANYWHERE BETWEEN -- DEPENDING ON THE SIZE OF THEIR COMPANY -- $300,000 AND $500,000 TO AWARD $10,000 PER EMPLOYEE IN SUPPORTS OR SIGNING BONUS, RETENTION BONUS TO THEIR EMPLOYEES THAT ARE WORKING ON THESE PROJECTS.

>> Jeff: SO IT'S THE EMPLOYER THAT APPLIES, NOT THE EMPLOYEE.

RORCHLTS THAT IS CORRECT.

>> Tiffany Robinson: THAT IS CORRECT.

IT IS AN EMPLOYER GROORNT BENEFIT EMPLOYEE, AND EMPLOYERS CAN APPLY TO USE THAT MONEY IN A SUPPORT PROGRAM AND/OR A PAYROLL INCENTIVE PROGRAM.

SO WHAT WE'RE FINDING IS THESE TYPES OF CONSTRUCTION JOBS SIMPLY DON'T HAVE THE SAME FLEXIBILITY AS A LOT OF OTHER TYPES OF JOBS POST PANDEMIC.

THEY CAN'T TELEWORK.

THEY CAN'T OFFER HIGH HYBRID SCHEDULES.

THEY REALLY HAVE TO SHOW UP EVERY DAY, OFTENTIMES OUT IN THE WEATHER.

AND SO WE BELIEVE THESE WORKERS DESERVE AN INCENTIVE, AND WE BELIEVE THE EMPLOYERS NEED HELP TO RECRUIT AND RETAIN.

SO IN ADDITION TO SOME OF THE INCENTIVES THAT EMPLOYERS HAVE ALREADY PROVIDED, WE ARE ALLOWING FOR, IN TERMS OF PAYROLL INCENTIVES, SIGNING BONUSES, RETENTION BONUSES, THE PAYMENT OF WAGES DURING A TRAINING PROGRAM, WHICH IS REALLY NOT FUNDED ELSEWHERE, OR A SUPPORT PROGRAM WHICH IS TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MOST STUBBORN BARRIERS THAT EMPLOYEES FACE, SUCH AS HOUSING COSTS, CHILD SUPPORT -- I MEAN, CHILD INDEPENDENT CARE OR TRANSPORTATION.

>> Jeff: THE GOVERNOR SAID WHEN HE ANNOUNCED THAT IT'S PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING THAT'S COMING DOWN THE PIKE, BUT ALSO, AS YOU SAY, IT'S A REACTION TO CURRENT SITUATION IN THE JOB MARKET.

>> Tiffany Robinson: THAT'S CORRECT.

IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH.

WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES TO TRULY REBUILD THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF THIS STATE, AND THERE IS A LOT OF FEDERAL DOLLARS COMING INTO MARYLAND TO SUPPORT THAT.

WE WORKED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION WHO IS OVERSEEING A LOT OF THOSE FEDERAL DOLLARS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE AND BROADBAND AND EXPANDING OUR GRID.

ALL OF THAT FITS THE BILL FOR THIS TYPE OF GRANT THAT AN EMPLOYER COULD APPLY FOR BECAUSE EVERYWHERE I HAVE TRAVELED THROUGHOUT THIS STATE, I AM BEING TOLD THE SAME THING.

WE'VE GOT PROJECTS.

WE'VE GOT FUNDING TO COMPLETE THE PROJECTS.

BUT WE DON'T HAVE THE WORKFORCE TO GET IT DONE.

SO WE'RE TRYING TO INCENTIVIZE AND HELP THEM BOLSTER THAT WORKFORCE.

>> Jeff: DO THE NUMBERS BEAR THAT YOU AT?

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NATIONALLY IN, IN MARYLAND, MARYLAND'S RATE AS A LITTLE BIT OVER 4% NOW WHICH INDICATES A STRONG LABOR MARKET BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLY STRONG BECAUSE, I MEAN, THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE COLLECTING UNEMPLOYMENT, PRESUMABLY OPEN TO WORK.

>> Tiffany Robinson: THAT'S CORRECT.

AND WE'VE ACTUALLY FOUND THAT THE RECOVERY IN MARYLAND, WHILE IT'S ABOUT AN MUCH BETTER THAN IN MOST STATES, HAS BEEN SLOWER FOR CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES, AND THAT TYPE OF WORKFORCE.

PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF THE TYPE OF HYBRID AND FLEXIBLE SCHEDULES THAT OTHER JOBS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRANSITION INTO.

WE'VE TALKED TO ECONOMISTS AS WELL.

WE BELIEVE THAT THIS IS A WAY TO ZIPFIZE OUR YOUTH -- INCENTIVIZE OUR YOUTH TO ENTER INTO THIS FIELD, THE UNEMPLOYED OR PEOPLE THAT MIGHT BE DOING SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAT WANT TO TRY A NEW INDUSTRY.

WE'RE REALLY HOPING TO RECRUIT THOSE WORKERS INTO THIS INDUSTRY BY ADVERTISING AND PERSUADING AND BRINGING ATTENTION TO THE HONOR AND THE RESPECT THAT GOES ALONG WITH REBUILDING OUR COUNTRY.

>> Jeff: DO YOU SEE THIS AS RELATED AT ALL TO THE OTHER INITIATIVE FROM THE ADMINISTRATION TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF STATE JOBS THAT REQUIRE PEOPLE TO HAVE A FOUR-YEAR DEGREE BEFORE THEY APPLY FOR IT?

>> Tiffany Robinson: ABSOLUTELY.

THIS IS THE PERFECT FOLLOW-UP TO OUR KIND OF NON-FOUR-YEAR ANNOUNCEMENT DEGREE ANNOUNCEMENT AND POLICY.

WE BELIEVE VERY STRONGLY THAT THESE INITIATIVES SHUTS DOWN BE FOCUSED ON THE WORKER, AND WE FOUND IN THE STATE OF MARYLAND WE, LIKE EVERY OTHER EMPLOYER IN THE STATE, WERE HAVING A HARD TIME RECRUITING AND FINDING CANDIDATES FOR OUR JOBS.

AND SO WE KIND OF THOUGHT-OUT OUTSIDE THE BOX ABOUT POIMS AS WELL AND WORKED WITH THE NON-PROFIT PARTNER, OPPORTUNITY AT WORK, TO REMOVE THE FOUR-YEAR DEGREE REQUIREMENT FROM THOUSANDS OF STATE JOBS, AND WE INCREASED THE APPLICATIONS AND THE CANDIDATES AND THE JOB FILLINGS FOR THOSE JOBS BY OVER 40%.

WE'RE PROUD OF THAT, AND WE ARE ESSENTIALLY DOING THE SAME THING FOR THE CONSTRUCTION WORKFORCE, FINDING A NEW WAY TO WELCOME THEM INTO THIS INDUSTRY, TO PROVIDE AN INCENTIVE, AND TO TELL THEM, WE WILL HELP YOU GET THROUGH YOUR TRAINING, WE WILL PROVIDE A RENTAL SUBSIDY OR A CAR LEASE.

SOME EMPLOYERS HAVE TOLD US THAT THEY MAY PURCHASE A CAR FOR A GROUP OF EMPLOYEES UP TO $10,000 PER EMPLOYEE TO TRANSPORT THEM BACK AND FORTH TO WORK.

SOMETIMES IT'S JUST ONE SMALL BARRIER LIKE THAT THAT CAN CONVINCE AN EMPLOYEE OR A WORKER THAT'S OUT OF WORK TO JOIN THIS INDUSTRY.

>> Jeff: TIFFANY ROBINSON, MARYLAND'S SECRETARY OF LABOR.

THANKS VERY MUCH FOR THE TIME.

>> Tiffany Robinson: THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> Jeff: AND NOW OVER TO THE SPORTS DESK, HERE'S JIM HUNTER.

>> Jim: THANKS, JEFF.

FOUR DAYS OF LIVE.

>>> AND THE MARYLAND SPHIEF FIVE STAR WRAPPED UP ON SUNDAY.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE HIGHLIGHTS.

>> FOR THE SECOND YEAR THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF EVENT HAS WITH THE IF MARYLAND FIVE STAR PRESENTED BY BRAND ADVISORY.

THE WEEK CONCLUDED IN WINNING WAYS FOR THE WORLD NUMBER 1 TIM PRICE OF NEW ZEALAND.

TIM, A RECENT BRONZE MELDIST AT THE CHAMPIONSHIPS AND ALSO WITH THE NEW ZEALAND TEAM, FOR THE FIRST TIME FIRE FIVE STAR HORSE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM HIS BASE IN GREAT BRITAIN.

HE OBVIOUSLY THINKS A LOT OF THIS HORSE BECAUSE HE KNOWS EXACTLY WHAT'S AT STAKE HERE, HAVING BEEN ON THE PODIUM LAST YEAR.

HE HE IS IN SECOND PLACE BEHIND THE AMERICAN.

THE CROSS COUNTRY COURSE HAS THAT ONE HEART STOPPING MOMENT THAT'S KIND OF SHOWN THIS IS A TEN-YEAR-OLD FIRST TIME FIVE STAR HORSE, BUT THEN THE REST OF THE TIME IT WAS FOOT PERFECT FOR THE WORLD NUMBER ONE.

TIM HAS ALREADY TAKEN VICTORY PRICE AT THE FIVE STAR LEVEL IN GERMANY, IN GREAT BRITAIN AND ALSO AGAIN BEEN THE WINNER LAST YEAR OF FIVE STAR IN WEST FRANCE.

TODAY HE CAME INLY NEEDING TO JUMP A CLEAR SNORED TO NAIL DOWN HIS FIRST VICTORY AT A NORTH AMERICAN FIVE STAR HAVING COME SO CLOSE BOTH HERE AND IN MARYLAND.

AND THE LAST SEALED THE DEAL.

HE WAS VICTORIOUS IN THE 2022 ADDITION, AND HE ADDS MARYLAND TO HIS ROSTER OF FIVE STAR VICTORIES.

THE WORLD NUMBER ONE IS THE NUMBER ONE IN MARYLAND.

SMITH FLIES THE FLAG FOR THE USA IN SECOND.

LAST YEAR'S RUNNER-UP TAKES THIRD WITH ANOTHER METEOR IT'S IN AS-IS.

SEVEN TYPE DUBLIN TOPPED FOUR.

THEN IT'S JENN BRANNIGAN.

WILL COLEMAN NUMBER 5 WITH DANTE 66.

TOP FOR HARRY MEADE AND SUPERSTITION FOR GREAT BRITAIN FINISHING ON DRESS DRJ SCORE.

AND HANNAH C. HALBERG WRAPS UP THE CAREER OF HARBOR PILOT IN HIS TWEEFLth FIVE STAR START WITH COMPLETION MERE IN MARYLAND AND TOP TEN.

ROUNDING OUT OUR TOP 12.

SCENES OF CELEBRATION AND JUBILATION HERE AS THAT CLEAR ROUND BROUGHT IT ALL HOME FOR TIM PRICE AND HE LED THE WITH A AROUND IN THE GALLOP THAT ENDED A P. FOR THE 2022 MARS MARYLAND FIVE STAR PRESENTED BY BRANT ADVISORY.

>> Jeff: AND JIM HUNTER AND THE MPT SPORTS DESK RETURNS IN FEBRUARY FOR CIAA BASKETBALL, AND THAT IS "DIRECT CONNECTION" FOR THIS WEEK.

BACK FRIDAY WITH "STATE CIRCLE" PERFECT FOR ALL OF US AT MPT, THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.

CLOSED CAPTIONING HAS BEEN