AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening, and welcome to live special coverage of the 2024 presidential primaries on this Super Tuesday.

GEOFF BENNETT: It is the biggest one-day prize of the campaign, with votes being counted in 16 states and one territory.

More than a third of the delegates for the Republican and Democratic nominations are up for grabs.

AMNA NAWAZ: A reminder, we here rely on the Associated Press for election results.

The AP only decides a winner after other contenders have no mathematical path to victory.

This hour, polls have closed in nearly every state, and former President Donald Trump is having another very good night.

He has won Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the last remaining challenger in the GOP race, has won just one state tonight.

That is the state of Vermont.

She's won that with 50 percent of the vote and about 91 percent of the expected vote in so far.

GEOFF BENNETT: And the Associated Press has also called President Biden as the winner in the Democratic races in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

But President Biden experienced his first loss of the primary season tonight in American Samoa.

Baltimore-based investor Jason Palmer won the territory and four of its six delegates.

The president earned the other two.

AMNA NAWAZ: We are still awaiting more results in a couple of additional states.

The polls closed in California just a few minutes ago, and they remain open in Alaska for another hour.

We're joined here in our studio by our panel for full analysis.

That is New York Times columnist David Brooks, Jonathan Capehart, associate editor for The Washington Post, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, Republican strategist Kevin madden, who advised Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, and Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Amy, for as long as public polling on the 2024 presidential race has been available, it has been clear that most Americans don't want to see a rematch of Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

(LAUGHTER) GEOFF BENNETT: And yet here we are... AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: And yet here we are.

GEOFF BENNETT: ... with both candidates on glide paths to the nomination.

AMY WALTER: It's the sequel that no one asked for, but they're getting.

And what's remarkable about this, too, is that, earlier this year, you would have -- I'm sorry -- in 2023, it didn't look as if there was going to be a glide path for both of these candidates.

Donald Trump was getting less than 50 percent of the Republican vote in national polls.

Obviously, you see these numbers now.

He's winning with 60, 70 percent or more in these states.

That was not always a given.

So, the fact that this is actually happening, I think, is an important point, number one.

The second is, when you look at how Americans feel about this -- so, The New York Times/Siena poll last week came out with a poll, asked - - and they asked people, how do you think about this election?

Give me one word.

Only 14 percent had a positive word.

Everybody else had a version of things like angry, worried, dispirited, unsure.

This is the next, basically, eight months in front of us.

(LAUGHTER) AMY WALTER: So, enjoy, everybody.

Welcome.

(LAUGHTER) (CROSSTALK) AMNA NAWAZ: I love that we got laughter from that from David and Jonathan.

(LAUGHTER) AMNA NAWAZ: I want your takeaways on what we have seen so far today, because, as Amy has pointed out, no real surprises here, right, although, I welcome your thoughts on American Samoa.

But this is now really into the general election, although no -- neither Trump nor Biden is officially the presumptive nominee yet.

Does what we saw today change the contours of the race moving forward at all?

David?

DAVID BROOKS: I mean, I hope it will quiet some of the pundits on the Democratic side who think we should have an open convention and they should find some magical mystery Democrat who's younger.

But people voted, and they voted for Joe Biden.

And so he deserves to be the nominee.

If you want to beat the nominee, find a candidate, run a campaign, get some votes.

And so the idea of an open convention for the Democrats, no, people actually voted today.

Lots and lots of people voted.

They voted for Joe Biden.

He's going to be the nominee.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: And I would add that Jason Palmer is not that person, the person who won in American Samoa.

I think both President Biden and Donald Trump, I think they were hoping they would sweep today.

They didn't.

I think there are big warning signs for Donald Trump.

The fact that Nikki Haley won Vermont, that's great.

But the fact that she's still continually getting a quarter of the Republican primary vote, I think -- I'd love to hear what Kevin has to say about this -- that is an opening.

That is clearly an opening for Democrats and for President Biden to go in there and say, look, if you want to save this country, you must vote for me.

And, actually, I'm cribbing from the statement that just came out, that came out at 10:21 from the Biden/Harris campaign, making the - - the case to Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

It's in this statement.

If you care about the future of this country, join us in saving the country.

GEOFF BENNETT: What about that, Kevin?

And I happen to know that the Haley campaign was hoping that, after she won the D.C. primary on Sunday, that Northern Virginia voters just across the river from D.C. would help deliver her the state of Virginia.

That didn't happen.

Where does she go next?

And why is she not speaking tonight?

I mean, this could be a crucial night for her, tons of viewers, potentially, but she's at home... KEVIN MADDEN, Republican Strategist: Yes.

GEOFF BENNETT: ... MIA.

KEVIN MADDEN: Well, I mean, to your point, though, about the -- Nikki Haley's campaign, hoping, hope is not a strategy.

And their strategy has been pretty limited to winning these areas of, like, Northern Virginia and suburb areas around these many primary contests that I think are really going to be huge battlegrounds in the general election.

And so I think the big question is whether or not Nikki Haley's vote is really a monolithic bloc, and it sort of stays with her.

I think Jonathan's right.

It will be up for grabs in the general election.

But, look, where does she go in the next 48 hours and why haven't we heard from her?

I think those are very big question marks.

As we mentioned earlier, her campaign is at a crossroads.

I think the first option that she has is, does she want a future in the Republican Party?

She has to consider what that looks like and whether or not that involves endorsing Donald Trump.

Or does it mean becoming a voice of the conscientious objectors inside the Republican Party?

The other path is what she's going to decide in the next 48 hours.

Is she going to be a part of uniting the Republican Party and ultimately beating what they believe is the common opposition in Joe Biden?

So that's the very tough deliberation that's taking place right now inside the Haley campaign.

AMNA NAWAZ: Faiz, what about the takeaways for the Biden campaign?

I mean, for Democratic voters who are looking for a place to put their displeasure or discontent, there are plenty of outlets there, right?

We saw that in Michigan with the significant uncommitted vote.

There were options for uncommitted in some states today, for no preference in others.

Actually, if you take a look at the Minnesota results, if we can pull those up, there was an uncommitted option there on the ballot, and 20 percent of the vote went that direction, although, of course, he did get 69 percent overwhelmingly of the vote there.

But eight months out, how much stock should the Biden campaign be putting in people who are choosing to register their displeasure this way?

FAIZ SHAKIR, Democratic Strategist: Well, I don't think they're blind to it.

They know that they have a job to do to build the coalition.

You're building off a strong base, I would say.

I mean, you can see that Democratic consolidation is there for Biden.

He's got some work to do to continue to maintain progressive young people's support.

A lot of that is related to policy.

So I know he's beating his brains out to try to get a six-week cease-fire.

If he can get it done, it'll matter, a big deal.

But I will say that there is one caution I have.

While he goes into this election in a very strong place, and I think abortion rights and core Democratic issues and competence governance, those things that propelled him to the presidency in 2020 are still there for him now.

And every time you have gone into the election cycle, whether it be 2020 or 2022, and MAGA candidates have been up against Biden, we have, Democrats have done well.

So keep that in mind.

Now, as you go into 2024, I think the things you want to reassess or continue to challenge yourself on is the fact that -- I'm reminded of a Bill Clinton quote from 2002.

He advised Democratic -- Democrats at that time, in the times of uncertainty that Amy Walter was referring to, people prefer strong and wrong over weak and right.

And it's just a good reflection to remember that Donald Trump is wrong.

We all know that.

This isn't a debate about checking boxes of who's wrong and who's right.

We're going to win that debate.

Strong is the point that I would reference here.

And as he heads into the State of the Union, I think President Biden, both for age reasons and a lot of others, needs to assert, this current hand is firmly on the steering wheel and I'm ready to fight in a big way for you.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's turn to our Lisa Desjardins, who is tracking the Republican primary races.

But, first, let's hear from President Trump, who addressed his supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this evening about his victories this evening.

DONALD TRUMP, Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate: They call it Super Tuesday for a reason.

This is a big one.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) DONALD TRUMP: And they tell me, the pundits and otherwise, that there's never been one like this.

There has never been anything so conclusive.

This was an amazing, an amazing night, an amazing day.

It's been an incredible period of time in our country's history.

It's been sad in so many ways, but I think it's going to be inspiring, because we're going to do something that, frankly, nobody's been able to do for a long time.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) GEOFF BENNETT: All right, Lisa so take us inside the Trump campaign.

What do they believe their really series of victories tonight really means for their campaign?

LISA DESJARDINS: Right.

The Trump campaign tells me they believe that they can clinch the Republican nomination within one week.

The March 12 primaries, they believe, are what will put him over the top to get the Republican nomination.

Now, what's interesting is the speech he gave tonight.

This was a general election speech.

This was something that I think Tamara Keith said yesterday, Monday on Politics Monday.

And, in fact, that is what the Trump campaign is trying to put out there.

He did not mention even, Even -- didn't even intimate anything about his main Republican opponent, Nikki Haley.

There's a reason for that.

One Trump source tells me that was intentional, that they are trying to leave room for Nikki Haley to get out of the race with respect.

They don't want to be throwing punches at her.

Now, that's what the Trump source says.

But I have a Haley source saying, wait a second.

There's other reasons as well, the fact that, as you all are saying on the panel, the Trump campaign realizes that they need Haley voters.

They do not want to do anything kind of to put bad blood in the water right now at this moment, where they feel, the Trump campaign, they're about to clinch the nomination.

AMNA NAWAZ: Our Laura Barron-Lopez also joins us.

She is our White House correspondent, has been following the results today.

And, Laura, what are you hearing from the Biden-Harris campaign about the results today?

And are they saying anything in response to some of the warning signs we have been talking about here?

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Thanks, Amna.

The Biden campaign told me that they're watching the voters that were voting for Haley in states like North Carolina, in states like Virginia very closely.

Specifically, when you look at some of those exit polls, the CNN exit poll show, that, in North Carolina, 62 percent of Haley voters said they would not vote Republican in November, regardless of who the nominee is.

And, for the same question, 76 percent of Haley voters said that they would not vote for the Republican nominee, regardless of who it is, in Virginia.

And so the Biden campaign is playing -- paying really close attention to those numbers.

So are other Democrats.

They see those numbers, they say, as a clear sign that those voters, those potentially gettable voters for President Biden are really repelled by Trump's extremism.

In terms of warning signs, their response to the uncommitted effort is essentially that, look, they're not ignoring it.

They're well aware of it.

They understand that the president isn't doing well with young voters, isn't doing well with Muslim and Arab voters, and that he needs to address that.

But they also compare it to similar uncommitted efforts that were brought against former President Barack Obama in 2012.

And so, so far tonight, those uncommitted votes in a state like Minnesota has gotten more than expected, some 39,000 votes, people voted uncommitted in Minnesota.

But, right now, a lot of Democrats aren't lighting their hair on fire about it.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Laura, as you have been speaking, we have learned that President Biden has won the state of California.

I believe we have some more information from the AP about the share there.

Well, there's -- there it is, making it official.

And Donald Trump has won California as well.

But, Laura, we should say that you're also tracking the California Senate race to replace the late Senator Dianne Feinstein.

And California has a top two primary, meaning that all of the candidates run together on the same ballot.

Help us understand the candidates who are running and the dynamics at play there.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: So, there are three leading Democratic candidates there, Geoff, Adam Schiff, Congressman Adam Schiff, Congresswoman Katie Porter, and Congresswoman Barbara Lee.

And they have really split the Democratic vote, especially Congresswomen Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.

They have split that progressive vote quite a bit.

And so the result is, because of the fact that the top two vote-getters proceed regardless of party, that means that we could very we will see Adam Schiff, who has been leading in a lot of the polls, make it through to November, but alongside a Republican, Steve Garvey, a former L.A. Dodger, and who has a lot of name I.D.

He hasn't really put out very specific policy platforms, but he's getting those Republican votes in California.

And it's looking like a Democrat in Adam Schiff and a Republican in Garvey could make it through.

And if that's the case, then that pretty much seals up the race for Adam Schiff.

We haven't seen results yet, and Katie Porter was really trying to fight a tooth and nail to the last minute to try to make sure that Garvey didn't box her out of the top two, but polling wasn't looking very good for her in the final days.

GEOFF BENNETT: That is our Laura Barron-Lopez.

Laura, thanks so much.

And, Jonathan, as we talk about the future of the Senate, we should mention that Kyrsten Sinema, who has been an influential, yet polarizing figure in the U.S. Senate, she said today that she's not going to run for reelection.

How do you see that changing the landscape of the Senate?

JONATHAN CAPEHART: Well, it's good news for Congressman Gallego, who jumped in there right away, and when Kyrsten Sinema really ticked off a lot of Democrats with her stance on the filibuster and other things, sort of being a fly in the ointment of Democratic agenda items.

But the map has always been hard, was always going to be hard, difficult for Democrats, especially with Maryland coming into play with former Governor Hogan getting into the race.

I don't know.

And that's why I'm really glad I'm sitting next to Amy, because she's the one who really should be answering this question.

(LAUGHTER) JONATHAN CAPEHART: With Kyrsten Sinema not running for reelection, I don't know.

I turn to you.

Does that actually help Congressman Gallego?

AMY WALTER: It actually, theoretically, would help Kari Lake.

GEOFF BENNETT: Really?

AMY WALTER: Because she was taking a lot of the Republican vote, sort of moderate voters who see Kari Lake as too extreme.

That was one element there, although I do think this is what's really interesting about Arizona.

It's a swing state, as we know.

The Democratic senators there have been more centrist Democrats.

The Republicans, that we have had -- now it's been since John McCain, the last Republican who was successful winning election there again, sort of hewing to the center, being seen as a sort of more moderate, Jeff Flake, same thing.

The nominees now in Gallego on the Democratic side, Kari Lake, who lost the governor's race last cycle, both further apart on that.

They are not exactly centrist candidates.

So how do you win over those key independent voters in a state like Arizona when you're coming from more left side and then for Kari Lake much more on the right side?

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, while I have the brain trust here, a question about the filibuster, David, which Jonathan mentioned.

If you have Senator Manchin leaving, Kyrsten Sinema leaving, and Mitch McConnell no longer in leadership, the legislative filibuster is pretty much up for grabs.

And on the Democratic side, that could mean that they get voting rights passed.

And on the Republican side, that could be abortion restrictions.

DAVID BROOKS: Yes, I think I have -- a lot of people have long thought the filibuster was on its way out, that it was a matter of time, because so few people are willing to defend it.

As one of those willing to defend it, I think it's bad for the body if you can pass with a simple majority.

You can get a lot more done.

You can get a lot more bad done.

But, basically, if you had any hope of having a Senate where people tried to work across the lines and did what Kyrsten Sinema did, that will not be necessary, because the Senate will look a lot more like the House.

AMNA NAWAZ: Amy, I want to come back to you on -- the Senate is fascinating also with Mitch McConnell stepping down from leadership and the race on to replace him.

But I know you have been focusing on a lot of fascinating House races as well, some incredible primary contests today in California and other places.

I'm thinking of like Congressman David Valadao in California, who's one of two Republican members of the House who voted to impeach for President Trump after the January 6 insurrection, who is fighting for his life there.

How are you looking at these races?

AMY WALTER: Yes, there are two ways to look at it.

There are a handful of competitive races, like the one in California.

And then there are these very red or very blue primaries.

And, as we know, so many members of Congress now are elected basically in the primary.

It's the whole ball game.

So, the kinds of candidates that win will tell us a lot about the kind of members we're going to see in Congress in the next election.

Some of them have been endorsed by Donald Trump.

Some are coming from the Freedom Caucus or been endorsed by the Freedom Caucus.

Obviously, these are the folks that have been a thorn in the side of leadership on the Republican side.

So, that -- again, I do think what's so different about this moment in time than, say, where we were in 2017, where you really did have a bifurcated party -- there was Donald Trump and then there was the Republican Party doing its thing.

These are now the same party.

The Trump party and -- is doing -- Trump is doing his thing and the candidates running on the Republican side are basically running as Donald Trump.

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes.

With an eye to what's happening in North Carolina, as we talk about downballot races, Kevin, Mark Robinson, who is a Hitler-quoting Holocaust denier, lieutenant governor currently, is now set to run for the governor of North Carolina, running against the Democrat, Josh Stein, who, if he wins would be the first Jewish governor of North Carolina, when you look at that race, what do you see, especially Mitch McConnell's warnings during the 2022 midterms about the lack of candidate quality, as he saw it, on the Republican side?

KEVIN MADDEN: Yes.

I mean, he's sort of an avatar of the candidates that really struggled in the 2020 election, and even many of the candidates who sort of had a sort of Trump veneer who ran in 2022 midterms, and they suffered at the ballot as a result of that.

And so that's one of the things, to Amy's point, I think that's going to be difficult for a lot of these candidates, that this is going to be a campaign that's really conditioned by the national jet stream of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden.

And so many of these candidates that -- who run in majority-makers seats, where they really have to have a unique identity with their voters and that they run on local issues and define themselves -- oftentimes, they have to vote against their party just to show that they can have a streak of independence that will appeal to those swing voters -- it's going to be increasingly difficult.

And then I think there's another impact here, too.

As Trump's legal issues and legal problems start to mount, and he tries to take over the RNC and some of its resources to help pay for that, what the downballot effect of resources, the people, the money, the time, the effort that goes into winning downballot, how that's going to be impacted by the national jet stream.

AMNA NAWAZ: Faiz, how do you look at a race like that, like the gubernatorial race in North Carolina, which will surely be incredibly polarizing?

And also getting back to what you mentioned earlier about the opportunity ahead for President Biden on Thursday at the State of the Union address, which is not a campaign event, but is a chance for him to address a lot of the weaknesses and warning signs that they're taking away from today.

What do you hope to hear from him then?

FAIZ SHAKIR: Well, I mean, on your point of the downballot candidates, affirming what Kevin was saying, you just -- we don't have to look back in history, Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz.

I mean, you go down the list of poor Senate candidates that they put up that I think would have won.

I mean, just look at Georgia, which Robinson kind of reminds me -- if you look at Georgia, Kemp wins, Governor Kemp wins by a healthy and large margin, while Herschel Walker loses, right?

And so, once again, I think we're going down a road where they're selecting Trump-like candidates who like to say outlandish things, and they think that works with the -- a base.

I don't -- the politics in a general electorate doesn't seem to affirm that.

I will say one of the things I'm keeping my eye on as we head into the next few months, one of the things that a lot of people aren't paying attention to is the ballot line in a lot of these states, who is actually going to be on the ballot.

And when I say that, it's who's on the -- who - - which third-party candidates are going to be on the line in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada?

Those are the key states.

And we know, just looking at the Nikki Haley votes that we have been talking about tonight, there's a healthy portion of people who are not going to pull the trigger for Donald Trump.

They have known enough about him.

There isn't much new to learn.

And they're going to look for someone else.

And, historically, that someone else has been Joe Biden.

The concern that I would have heading into this is an RFK, Cornel West, Jill Stein, whoever it might be.

The more names you populate it, the more concern for a Joe Biden campaign, because I think they siphon the votes away from who they would ordinarily go to.

GEOFF BENNETT: Looking ahead to Thursday, how does President Biden really leverage this State of the Union address to show the nation that he is a president who is in command and can transmit a vision for the future?

JONATHAN CAPEHART: This will be his biggest audience.

It's the biggest audience any president gets usually in a year.

And this will be vital for him.

If he -- if the President Biden who shows up on Thursday is the same feisty President Biden who showed up at last year's State of the Union address, it's going to be lit.

(LAUGHTER) JONATHAN CAPEHART: It's an election year where he feels like he's got something to prove, because we're all talking about his age all the time.

But he's also a president who has a record to run on, and he's very proud of it.

And this is his opportunity to tell the American people exactly what it is.

And, also, we should also keep in mind that Thursday is the actual 59th anniversary of Bloody Sunday.

GEOFF BENNETT: That's right.

JONATHAN CAPEHART: And I think we should expect to see him lean in hard on the symbolism of that, because it fits in with his whole rationale for running in 2020 and for running for reelection in 2024.

And that is the fight for democracy.

GEOFF BENNETT: How do you see it, David?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes, there's a piece by Evan Osnos in "The New Yorker" this week, an interview with Joe Biden.

And one of the Biden teams says: We expect democracy and January 6 to be on people's minds when they go to the polls.

I think that's crazy.

I think people want an agenda for the next four years.

And Joe Biden can't run against Donald Trump.

He has to do that, obviously.

But he has to give some idea of what he's going to do on the border, what he's going to do internationally.

I think the agenda is so far a blank slate, and he better fill that in.

GEOFF BENNETT: David Brooks, Jonathan Capehart, Amy Walter, Faiz Shakir, and Kevin Madden, our deep thanks to all of you.

AMNA NAWAZ: Well, this has been live special coverage of Super Tuesday.

Be sure to tune in tomorrow for more analysis on the regularly scheduled "NewsHour."

GEOFF BENNETT: And we invite you to join us on Thursday for live coverage of President Biden's State of the Union address.

That starts at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

For all of us here at the "NewsHour," we thank you for joining us, and we bid you a good night.